19-20 Jan 2021 – precipitation

It was certainly a wet 24 hours across the high ground of Northern Ireland, Wales and the northwest England up until 06 UTC this morning but the amber warning issued by the Met Office for heavy rain away from the northwest of England so far looks a big mistake. Let’s see what day two of the warning brings.

2 thoughts on “19-20 Jan 2021 – precipitation”

  1. Don’t forget the warning area shows where impacts are expected to be greatest – not necessarily where the heaviest rain will be. It is an impacts-based warning system.

    1. It’s difficult to judge a warning by the impacts it brings unless you are totally omniscient and can plot the severity of each impact on a map!
      And I think that’s one of the primary reasons the UKMO chose to use impact-based rather than threshold-based warnings – they can’t easily be monitored – unless there are absolutely no impacts at all or maybe they all happened outside the warning area.
      The only way that I can gauge the accuracy of a warning was is by the amount of rain or snow that fell, the strength of the wind or if the visibility was 100 metres or less from observational data, which I’ll continue to do.
      The amber rain warning for storm Christoph is a case in point. The emphasis for this warning (in my opinion) should have been in the northwest of England even North Wales, but at one stage it included Lincolnshire and Cambridgeshire. No one as far as I can see monitors the accuracy of Met Office warnings. It would be more useful if the Met Office were more candid about how effective they thought their own warning had been, because I am sure it’s done internally, but I realise in these litigious days, no organisation is going to admit that they got it wrong.

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