8-1 on that January won’t be cold
Of the last fifty January’s in the UK I can only really count six or seven of them being significantly colder than average across the whole of the UK. That probably means the odds of January being near average or mild are about 8-1 on or maybe even higher, but I wouldn’t bet on it. The last cold January was ten years ago in 2010, and before that you probably would have to go back thirty years or more to 1987 to find another cold one. Cold Januaries are becoming as rare as the proverbial rocking horse droppings in the 21st century, so why is it that each winter I still doggedly look for an easterly, or a SSW event, or console myself with the fact that winter 1947 didn’t start to the end of the first week?