A change of type by mid-week?

Courtesy of wxcharts.com

A change of circulation type is underway during the coming week, that’s according to the latest NWP forecast from the ECMWF hires model, and by mid week high pressure will dominate across the north of the UK with low pressure systems gradually becoming dominant to the southwest of the UK. Between the two, if this forecast is correct, a continental northeasterly airstream will become established across IONA by Wednesday and persist for the following week, with winds that will gradually veer more into the east and the southeast as time goes by. This means that temperatures will continue below average, with little signs of an Indian summer and quite a high probability of frost at night especially across the north where winds will be at their lightest. The GFS model in contrast doesn’t buy into the anticyclonic easterly solution presented to us by the ECMWF, and soon returns to a more mobile and zonal theme after just a couple of days.

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