A cold April to come?

Courtesy of the ECMWF

I have not found the 42 day long range 2 M temperature forecasts from the ECMWF particularly accurate in the past, but I thought I would give them another chance and see how they saw things panning out during April 2021 temperature wise. Although the deterministic models for the next ten days paint a distinctly cold start to April, the long range forecast for the first week (5th to 12th) is not overly cold across England and Wales, in fact things warm up over England Wales in the second week (12th to 19th). During the last two weeks of April temperatures look closer to normal with negative anomalies retreating away to west. The month of April seems to be echoing a theme that’s been running through much of the winter as far as temperatures are concerned and that is – colder in the northwest but much milder further south and east. I’ll have to ask Alexa to remind me to return to this post at the start of May to see how well they did.

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