A tale of two warnings

The only reason that I can see why almost identical warnings were issued for heavy rain across central Wales and central northern England, one amber and the other yellow, is that the Met Office thought that river Severn was more sensitive to more heavy rain than the rivers Aire, Don or Trent. This must have been after liasing with the EA about the risk of this happening, but to me shows how imperative that the agencies should be merged as quickly as possible. These days much of the forecasting done by the Met Office is already geared to warning local authorities and government about the impacts of any forecast severe weather, and that generally means from pluvial flooding.

Courtesy of the Met Office

The EA still have red alerts still in force for the places along the River Severn:

Courtesy of the EA

But the picture is still far from rosy across Yorkshire with many rivers still on amber alert.

In the final analysis, and if you believe my estimates from weather radar images, things weren’t quite as wet as they were forecast to be overnight particularly across central Wales. That may have been because this warm sector didn’t produce as much orographic rainfall than expected, in fact the bulk of the rain this morning is associated with the occlusion across western Scotland and not the warm sector across England.

Rainfall accumulation estimates

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