The latest run of the GFS model (00 UTC) curves Lorenzo northeast and then eastward into the northwest of Scotland on Friday, rapidly filling the old hurricane from 947 hPa to 1000 hpa in 36 hours. On the strength of this particular NWP solution, I can’t see why Met Eireann won’t issue an amber warning for Thursday and make this the first named storm of the season – but what to call it? I know lets call it Lorenzo.
It’s noticeable that all the main NWP models have now come to a consensus regarding Lorenzo which you would might expect at this late stage. The ICON model from the Germans has a similar solution to the GFS – deepening Lorenzo from 965 to 951 hPa in 9 hours and then rapid filling to 975 hPa just 15 hours later.
I notice that even with the models coming into alignment MeteoGroup and the BBC are still playing it very coy regarding Lorenzo in their morning forecasts. This mornings NHC discussion highlights the large seas expected with Lorenzo and something called trapped-fetch wave.