Another Trigger’s broom?

Courtesy of Met Office

This yellow warning for strong winds on Tuesday has been issued by the Met Office a full three days ahead of time. There is no good reason why they couldn’t have least waited till tomorrow or at the latest Monday to have issued it. I can’t understand why they miss issuing a warning for severe gales yesterday across Shetland and then choose to issue a warning for three days ahead. Let’s see just how much it changes in the next three days it does remind me of one they issued for heavy rain in October. Unlike rain warnings which they seem to be uncannily correct with in recent months, wind warnings are a bit more hit and miss, but at least this time they’ve included Scotland in it.

Courtesy of Met Office

Addendum – Sunday

And so it begins. Yes, they’ve taken out and the northern isles, but to me the gradient looks just as strong there as it does across the western isles area in the latest T+60 forecast chart. They’ve also reduced the 60-70 to 50-60 mph, and the potential 70-80 to 70-75 mph and the likely reason why the northern isles have been removed from the earlier warning – you don’t get a yellow warning in Shetland for anything less than 80 mph gusts, who knows what the threshold is for amber and red probably 90 and 100 mph. I wonder, would issuing the original warning 24 hours later made have made that much difference?

Courtesy of Met Office

Addendum Monday

Today the Met Office increased the size of the area in their yellow warning to cover further east. They are totally obsessed with the impact matrix and have increased the likelihood to ‘very likely’, but because they’ve left the impact at ‘medium-low’ it remains a yellow warning so there was little point in that.

Courtesy of Met Office

Again today the Chief has chosen to ignore the northern Isles where the gradient is similar if not the same as that across the western Isles. If this crazy warning system was in any way logical, which it isn’t, then Inverness would be at greater risk of seeing gusts of 50-60 mph tomorrow than would Kirkwall and Lerwick.

Courtesy of Met Office

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