April 2020 – Global temperatures

The 365 day mean global temperatures that I calculate using NOAA reanalysis gridded data continued to fall back during April, as it did in March. The chart above shows now the centred moving average, which obviously trails 6 months behind the latest daily data, has now fallen back for the last two months. This stalling of this rise, which started in 2018, dare I say cooling, was not been picked up by the other global temperature series in March, although I do expect to see it in the April estimates when they are issued. My figures for April 2020 make it just the fifth warmest in my series which started in 1948.

Because I calculate an estimated global temperature daily, here’s a look back at the last six months in a bit more detail and you’ll notice the cooling that started in the last week of February. That cold spell seem to be drawing to an end as we start May.

These cooler couple of months I think puts the kibosh on any notion that 2020 will be the warmest on record. It is entirely possible that I don’t place enough weighting on temperatures over the sea, and the series I produce is more sensitive than it should be to temperatures over land. I supposes this summer could bounce back, but at the moment this year trails well behind 2016.

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