April SST and the 2020 hurricane season
If warmer oceans have anything to do with more frequent and more powerful hurricanes, then this years high SST anomalies might well put that hypothesis to the test. The Atlantic off the coast of Africa, is generally warmer than normal this April where many Atlantic hurricanes are formed, and the Gulf of Mexico is remarkably 2°C to 3°C above average too. I see that Accuweather are going for an above average season, their forecast looks remarkably similar from the one from Colorado State University. Why CSU take such an interest in Atlantic Hurricanes when they never see one is curious, you would have expected Florida State University to have been the preeminent university in this regard.
Much the more precise and detailed forecast for the 2020 hurricane season of the three that have been issued at the moment, comes from the tropicalstormrisk.com brigade, who go into great lengths about their forecast and the methodology behind it. Suffice it to say it isn’t that much different on the face it from the other two.
At the moment neither NOAA or the UKMO have
placed their bets issued their forecasts for the coming hurricane season. Perhaps the lockdown has prevented them from getting out their ouija boards consulting their tropical cyclone seasonal models.