At least I anticipated that low Fenja would soon be rebranded Storm Brendan by Met Eireann – some of my guesses do occasionally come off! Comparing today’s ICON model run with yesterday show the low is around 5 hPa deeper and the cold front it slams against western areas a couple of hours quicker. The low center itself may just be a shade further west than it was yesterday, but the gradient is probably a little tighter than in yesterday’s run, particularly across the northwest of Ireland, remarkably the ICON model runs are very consistent even though they are 24 hours apart, the wonders of modern science.
The ICON model indicates that there’ll be two distinct peaks in the storm force winds. One will occur around 17 UTC and affect the northwest of Ireland, the Irish sea and the more southern part of the outer and inner Hebrides, the second across the outer Hebrides will occur in the early hours of Tuesday morning if the model is correct.
Call it delusions of grandeur if you like, but sometimes I get the distinct impression that someone down in the forecasting office in Exeter does occasionally read some of the stuff I write on xmetman. Take for instance my quip in yesterday’s post that their forecast charts showing low Fenja too occluded for an actively deepening extratropical low – guess what:
The one other thing that I criticised them for was why hadn’t they ticked the highest ‘highly likely’ cell in the ridiculous impact matrix for their yellow warning when it was very obvious it was highly likely to happen. Today they put that right too.
Reason for update
Update to start time and to a high likelihood in impact matrix. Warning text updated to add additional detail.Met Office
Having said that the Met Office warnings system still regards this as a yellow low impact event, but if it were forecast to happen anywhere else it would more than likely been amber or red, it seems that people and the infrastructure at the fringes of these sceptred isles are seen as a little less precious than elsewhere.xmetman