A divergence of opinion
What’s the chart for next Friday going to look like?
NWP
Subtle difference in ECMWF forecast for next week
Never trust a model even if it’s the ECMWF at 7 days out.
Milder by the end of next week?
This cold spell has got to end sooner or later – the ECMWF super computer thinks it will happen by the end of next week.
10/11 November – highest gusts
In western parts the northwesterly has been gale force at times around Elvis II in the last 24 hours, any other day gusts as high as 70 mph would have merited a yellow wind warning. As far as I can see the centre of Elvis II didn’t quite behave itself today as far as the model runs of yesterday predicted it would, and much of our part of the Scotland saw light winds and little in the way of rain in the centre of the low.
Low Ferdinand set to keep south
Cold northerly to return by Tuesday across Scotland and reinforced by low Ferdinand on Thursday.
The eternal optimist
The weather of Sunday 10 November 2019
Elvis conjures up some hill snow on Sunday night
The chances of snow on Sunday night
Another low slides southeast down the Irish sea
The UKMO persist in ending this current spell of weather, but noticeably the start of the transition to “more unsettled weather in the north” never seems to get any closer in their ever vague extended outlook.
Easterly outlook
The weather in the next ten days looks set to remain cyclonic and very unsettled, with easterly winds across northern parts according to the latest run of the ECMWF model.
Met Office ignore chance of strong winds on Friday and plump for heavy rain instead
Large difference for Friday between the GFS and UKMO models but which one to believe?
Or what about Thursday?
I completely missed the potential for gusts to 80 mph with Thursday’s low.
Storm Atiyah on Friday?
What’s so wrong with Albert or Arthur?
