There is very little in the way of development and deepening of the low that tracks from the bay of Biscay E’NE along the English Channel later this morning. The chart below is for rainfall totals …
The case of the missing second warning for heavy rain… Read More »
There certainly will be a spell of southwesterly gales running in the Eastern English Channel on Wednesday that may well produce an hour or two of coastal gales along the Kent coast, that’s if this latest …
This storm naming game is a real hoot isn’t it. I must admit that I didn’t even see this one coming. The Met Office seem to have it well covered though, so here are all the …
The yellow warning warning for heavy rain from the Met Office has only been running for eleven hours or so, and it’s already quite apparent that the bulk of the rain which has fallen is much …
The next tropical cyclone has not even been named yet but the latest run of the GFS model thinks that the low 700 miles to the SE of the Bermuda’s will become Tropical Storm Epsilon in …
Rather a late issued warning for heavy rain that runs from 02 UTC on Monday to 08 UTC on Tuesday for parts of northern Ireland and central Scotland. I fancy that there must have been a …
You might have thought that the GFS model was throwing a wobbly at T+168 with the extreme gradient that it’s forecasting around this low of southwest Ireland. Having said that it was only at the beginning …
A change of circulation type is underway during the coming week, that’s according to the latest NWP forecast from the ECMWF hires model, and by mid week high pressure will dominate across the north of the …
Thanks to the ECMWF freeing up a lot more of their range of graphical NWP products, the long range seasonal forecast is now available for up to four clear months ahead, and it’s a vast improvement …
Long range ECMWF monthly temperature anomalies for winter 2020-21 *updated* Read More »
Now that we have got unfettered access to the ECMWF NWP graphics I thought I would look at what they think the next ten days will be like. You don’t need to be a Tomasz Schafernaker …
From today, all ECMWF graphical products are free and accessible to all! Medium-range, extended-range and long-range forecast charts of temperature, wind, precipitation, clouds and ocean waves are just some of the products available. ECMWF Isn’t it …
Europe in September 2020 was predominantly warmer than the 1981-2010 average for September. Temperatures were most above average in countries bordering the Black Sea, but relatively warm conditions were also experienced over the western Balkans, the …
Will Delta make a right turn? The 2020 North Atlantic tropical cyclone has sprung back into life after a quite spell with a couple of new tropical storms. One of these, tropical cyclone Delta has been …
The UKMO are anticipating a potential change of type across IONA by the middle of October in their long range text forecast. This fits in rather nicely with the T+384 frame for Sunday the 18th from …
There’s little agreement between the GFS and ECMWF numerical models about what comes next after a weekend that’s dominated by low Alex. The forecast for the UK seems to have it wallowing in the aftermath of …
Americans and Europeans at loggerheads about what happens next Read More »
The leading NWP Models now seem to be coming to some kind of general consensus about the track of Friday’s low, although they do differ about its intensity. The ECMWF for example takes the developing low …
Saturdays pirouetting low according to the midnight run of the GFS model starts its journey moving quickly westward into central France from the Bay of Biscay before taking a sharp turn to the left and heading …
It seems that autumn has come early to western Europe this year with more equinoctial gales following hard on the heels of storm Odette.The forecast of a deep low for Saturday across IONA I mentioned yesterday …
I had to check that I wasn’t seeing things when I first looked at the ECMWF hi-res model for next weekend across IONA. For a moment I thought I’d downloaded the images from the wxcharts.com site …
Exeter are obviously confident that they’ve plumped for the right area to issue a yellow strong wind warning for – East Anglia for tomorrow rather than one for the southwest for today. It’s the same feature …
So much for the ICON model and its forecast 2 metre air temperature for Altnaharra at o6 UTC this morning of 3°C. The Germans look like they have problems with that model because the temperature at …
The first frost of the autumn and model shortcomings Read More »
I would have thought that there was a good chance of a sharp frost tonight across inland parts of Scotland, although the ICON model doesn’t seem to be going for one, it certainly feels crisp and …
There is not a great deal of consensus between any of the forecasts for Wednesday from the NWP data available on the internet. The ECMWF model seems to be the outlier, which as well as the …
The weather across IONA in the next week or so, according to the latest NWP forecast from the ECMWF, is in an even more changeable mood that it usually is as we approach the autumn equinox …
A quite anticyclonic spell for the start of autumn? – forget it. Read More »