ECMWF

So much for that much anticipated meridional spell

I must have put the kiss of death on it when I wrote about how this huge high pressure (with a central pressure of 1054 hPa by this Sunday) was looking like it would stick around for at least the next ten days, only to find that the...

High Keywan set for a long stay

It looks like high Keywan, as the BIM have named it, will stick around in the central Atlantic right out till day ten if this ECMWF hi-res forecast proves correct. It’s forecast to be as intense as 1053 hPa as it moves northwest by the weekend, before slowly...

Spring retreat

After a very mild winter it looks like spring has been put on hold as a series of lows are forecast to run southeast from Iceland into Norway which will maintain a never ending supply of cold air from Greenland. That’s of course if this animation of the...

Another 1050+ high

It will be interesting to see if the above forecast from the ECMWF plays out and we do seen an intense high of over 1050 hPa becoming established to the west of Scotland by the weekend. If it does this will be the second time this has happened...

Where will the next high pop up?

Well we’ve had one fleeting high pressure, but that soon scooted off into the continent without taking up residence, will we get another? Well the ECMWF midnight run promises another again coming in from the west before moving to the north of IONA with a short northerly outbreak...

WDQMS

I have found one more very useful service for people, who like me, download SYNOP observational data from around the world. This time the service is not directly from another European agency like Copernicus, but maintained by the World Meteorological Organisation, who with the help of the ECMWF...

Not very long

Not very long. That may well be the answer to the question of just how long will this anticyclonic spell – which I realise hasn’t even begun yet – will last. A transient high is what they call them, that’s if we are to believe the latest run...

A reversal of fortunes

The weathercasters on TV have not stopped going on about the strong signals for high pressure this coming week, well we might have to wait till later in the weekend before we see any real benefits from it, especially if you live in the south. Louise Lear had...

Signs of something more anticyclonic on the way

The midnight run of the ECMWF hi-resolution model does have the signs of something more anticyclonic coming along by early next week. It’s been hinting about a brief northerly outbreak followed by high pressure building in from the west in its previous runs, but now that it’s getting...

The most important number in the world

I calculate anomalies for both pressure and temperature each month in an application that I run in my old PC in my box room office using free gridded data that I download from NOAA. I can calculate anomalies for any period, I can even give you a chart...

No respite

There seems to be no end in sight, at least in the short term, to this mobile spell of westerly weather that started after what were just a few brief days of anticyclonic weather at the beginning of February, that’s according to the latest NWP rum of the...

A candidate for Storm Ellen

The Met Office have been making a big play about how they spotted an embryonic Dennis developing in a two hundred knot jet stream of the eastern seaboard of America five or six days out, so let’s see how they do with this one.

Snow for auld reekie?

The Met Office must be very confident in their mesoscale model, because rather surprisingly they are not expecting much in the way of impacts from snow away from the higher ground of the southern uplands and Cumbria (updated).

A ‘muddle’ of models

Now that we have waved a fond farewell to Ciara it’s now time to cast our gaze forward to later in the week.

Sunday at T+36

The tightening of the flow across western Scotland looks threatening