GFS out on a limb with this forecast *updated
On the face of it the GFS model seems to be out on a limb in how it’s forecasting a significantly deeper and more …
GFS
GFS-ECMWF split
It looks to me that the GFS and ECMWF models start to diverge from around next Friday (T+120) when the GFS has cold air …
Which model’s your money on?
Absolutely diametrically opposing solutions in the ten day forecast for the ninth of February (T+240) from the GFS and ECMWF models today. I know …
Large differences in GFS and ECMWF models
The GFS and ECMWF aren’t seeing eye to eye regarding the low that’s spinning up on Friday to the southwest of IONA. This feature …
20 Jan 2021 – Wednesdays low
There seems to be a bit of a disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF models about how much the low that’s forecast to track …
Is this how the cold spell will end?
The ten day outlook isn’t looking too rosy at the moment for snow lovers from the 12th of January. We’ve had a good run …
So this is Christmas
A generally widespread slight to moderate frost away from windward coasts overnight. Temperatures are already rising and pressure falling in the northwest though. The …
Northerlies – a mere shadow of their former self
The models always seem to be promising a northerly outbreak at this time of the year. Sometime they never materialise at all and seem …
Northerlies – a mere shadow of their former self Read More »
It’s going to be a cold, cold Christmas without you
Good old Dana! Whatever happened to her? Of course this is not December 1975 anymore, but there’s still bugger all on telly and it …
It’s going to be a cold, cold Christmas without you Read More »
Something in the air
Both the GFS and the ECMWF models are promising a change of type between Christmas and New Year reversing the zonal westerly into a …
Some Christmas cheer from the GFS
The northerly on Christmas Eve might only be forecast to last for just a day, but don’t worry, with such a massive anticyclone becoming …
Possible change of type over Christmas
It seems that the extended frames of the GFS model are forever tantalisingly us with the prospects of a cold spell on the run …
Bang goes that bet!
This is the forecast for Christmas morning from the latest run of the GFS model. The chances of an anticyclonic easterly in last weeks …
Cyclonic run up to Christmas
It looks like it’ll be a cyclonic run up to Christmas 2020 and staying on the cold sign although not cold enough for any …
Anticyclonic easterly sits waiting in the wings for Christmas
It seems that every year, I along with a lot of others do the same thing, and that is looking for the first hint …
Anticyclonic easterly sits waiting in the wings for Christmas Read More »
Met Office still clinging to their anticyclonic start to December story
The GFS are still keeping things mobile well into the first week of December in marked contrast the UKMO in their long range forecast …
Met Office still clinging to their anticyclonic start to December story Read More »
This forecast should get the editor at the Daily Express going
I can already picture the editor of the Daily Express rubbing his hands in delight at the prospect of boosting his sales figures with …
This forecast should get the editor at the Daily Express going Read More »
Epsilon definitely one to watch
The next tropical cyclone has not even been named yet but the latest run of the GFS model thinks that the low 700 miles …
Is the GFS throwing a wobbly at T+168?
You might have thought that the GFS model was throwing a wobbly at T+168 with the extreme gradient that it’s forecasting around this low …
Midmonth change in type?
The UKMO are anticipating a potential change of type across IONA by the middle of October in their long range text forecast. This fits …
Americans and Europeans at loggerheads about what happens next
There’s little agreement between the GFS and ECMWF numerical models about what comes next after a weekend that’s dominated by low Alex. The forecast …
Americans and Europeans at loggerheads about what happens next Read More »
Now more likely storm Alex than Aiden
Saturdays pirouetting low according to the midnight run of the GFS model starts its journey moving quickly westward into central France from the Bay …
Autumn comes early to western Europe
It seems that autumn has come early to western Europe this year with more equinoctial gales following hard on the heels of storm Odette.The …