Warnings

Rainfall totals for last 39 hours

The wettest spots exposed to the strong to gale force S’SW for the last couple of days look to have seen 60 to 75 mm of rain in the last 39 hours, that’s if my estimates from weather radar images are correct. Accumulations like this due to orographic...

Latest rainfall accumulations

This is a chart of estimated rainfall totals since 12 UTC on Monday that’s a period of almost 26 hours, the estimates look fairly reasonable when compared to the reported totals from the SYNOPs. The highest orographic rainfall totals are in the range 50 to 60 mm over...

Wet, wet, wet

The models are predicting a wet start to the week across western Scotland, particularly on the Outer isles and Skye. The totals don’t look quite as dire in the 00 UTC run of the GFS as the 100 to 125 mm predicted in the yellow warning from the...

Good old Met Office

There are no warnings of strong wind in force today from the Met Office. But Meteoalarm reveals that’s not the case in other countries across Europe. Portugal have warnings issued for gusts of 75 kph on their coasts, Norway have issued warnings for coastal areas for mean speed...

A tale of two warnings

The only reason that I can see why almost identical warnings were issued for heavy rain across central Wales and central northern England, one amber and the other yellow, is that the Met Office thought that river Severn was more sensitive to more heavy rain than the rivers...

What stops the Spanish doing it again?

As far as I can see if AEMet expect coastal communities in Galicia to experience a spell of strong winds with gusts in excess of 80 kph and issue an amber alert this may well trigger the naming of a storm even though the storm center may be over 1500 kilometres away as has happened with storm Jorge.

A tricky question

I wonder how far Met Eireann would get if they treated the people who lived in countries Mayo or Donegal like the Met Office treat the people who live in the north and west of Scotland?

Disparity

The Met Office have been quite good with their snow warnings over Scotland for the last couple of weeks but not so today.

Impacts and probabilities of tomorrow’s snow

Now that we are less than 18 hours from the possibility of any snow falling, surely their mesoscale model which they run every hour, has now come up with a definitive answer about how much snow will fall?

The whites of its eyes

I can’t remember a month when it seems to have snowed in our part of the Highlands just about every other day, but any temporary covering of snow we did see never lasted for very long.

The great Oz has spoken!

The Met Office have finally sprung into action and have this morning, and rather belatedly in my opinion when compared to their hair trigger like response in the naming of storms Ciara and Dennis, issued a yellow warning for strong winds across Scotland for Monday.

Confident enough about the rain but not the wind

By this time last week the Met Office had already issued an amber warning for rain and had named a storm. Monday looks a little more problematic, but that hasn’t stopped them issuing a yellow warning for heavy rain, but what about the wind?

Impacts and likelihoods of rainfall from storm Dennis

No one of course care’s about the minutiae of what the various warnings that were issued, in the final analysis it probably made little difference in alerting people to the chances of flooding, because the media have been all over this story for days, with flocks of TV reporters already vying for best positions along the river Taff in south Wales to capture all the details.

Dennis so far

Believe it or not, some of the highest accumulations to be found in that period have been across the southern Cairngorms in Scotland, where there’s not even a yellow warning in force.