Climate warming scepticism and 42 day extended forecasts from the ECMWF

Three more weeks of below average temperatures across IONA, otherwise known as rather cold, that’s according to the latest 42 day long range forecast from the ECMWF. On the 29th of November I wrote a blog and added their forecast out to the first week of January (see below). As you can see the forecast was going for average temperatures during the Christmas before turning mild at the start of January. That’s in stark contrast to the very much colder forecast for the start of January in their latest model run. It does make you wonder about the accuracy and worth of forecasts like this that can simply flip from mild to cold in just a month. I can easily see why global warming skeptics say that they have little faith in climate models which look not just at the next 42 days, but at future decades, when we can’t seem to forecast temperatures for the next month with any degree (pardon the pun) of accuracy. I’m glad the ECMWF freed up their NWP such as this, at least now I realise extended forecasts such as this are even less of an exact science than I had previously thought.

Courtesy of ECMWF
Issued 30 November 2020
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