Cold plunge – is Alex clutching at straws or should that be icicles?

Forecast for Wednesday the 5th of February
Courtesy of the Met Office

As you can see it’s not only me that clutches at straws every winter, Alex Deakin down at the Met Office does too. In the latest 10 day trend video he’s scanning ahead in the model runs for a cold plunge from the north, ponificating about the likelihood of a high pressure in the first week of February. Why is it in these video forecasts do they never use Met Office model output?

  • Perhaps the Met Office NWP data is on a needs to know basis and Alex Deakin and team just don’t need to know?
  • Perhaps the Met Office don’t even have a model and to save money they use ECMWF data instead?
  • Perhaps they just returned the £97 million pound supercomputer and asked Cray for a refund?
  • Perhaps the massive computer hall in their new purpose built building is empty except for a tea chest and a couple of plastic chairs?

It makes us world leaders not only in talking about the weather, but forecasting it too

Greg Clark, MP, Minister for Universities and Science

Although you may not have realised it (thanks to the media) but we’ve just had a 48 hour ‘cold spell’ across Scotland, that was courtesy of cold air from the west and not from the north or the east. To call it a ‘cold spell’ does the term ‘cold spell’ an injustice, but it did allow some snow to fall at least for a couple of days. The chances of any cold weather arriving in what remains of this winter in an easterly from a snowless continent look extremely slim indeed, and even if we do see a northerly outbreak next week it will be tempered by warmer than average SST in the Norwegian sea, so don’t hold your breath for any real (sub 510 dm thickness) cold air anytime soon.

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