The weather still looks highly likely to switch back to cold during early March after what has been a very mild last two weeks to February. That’s according to the latest run of the ECMWF model. The GFS don’t go along with the idea of high pressure relocating to the north of the UK at all, and keep a mobile southwesterly going across Scotland. As usual the UKMO in their long range forecast are a little slow to pick up on this idea of the ECMWF, but have admitted that high pressure, which is likely to dominate over the next ten days, might decide to relocate to the north of the UK in the first week of March. The deterministic ECMWF model might be going for a cold spell by the 7th of March, but their long range anomaly chart for the first week of March hardly reflects the fact that it will be that cold, obviously their climate model doesn’t play by the same rules.