Confident enough about the rain but not the wind

Courtesy of UKMO

By this time last week the Met Office had already issued an amber warning for rain and had named the storm for the coming weekend. Next Monday looks a little more problematic, but that hasn’t stopped them issuing a yellow warning for heavy rain. But what about the wind? So far they are still undecided about that and have remained schtum about Monday. So much for the promised benefits that come from running the model for the UK every hour instead of every three hours bring. I still think they are loathed to name this low storm Ellen because it impacts mainly Scotland and not England, but I could be wrong, and they may launch forth later this morning. The latest model from other Met services seem to have come into line about a possible storm Ellen.

The benefit of this has been felt recently: major storms Ciara and Dennis, and the ‘Beast from the East’ in 2018, were forecast five days in advance, enabling local councils and emergency services to prepare and instigate resilience plans.

Professor Ted Shepherd

“Another spell of very wet and windy ​weather is expected for Saturday. Although Storm Dennis is currently not expected to be as severe as Ciara, disruption is still likely. Our confidence in the forecast means we have been able to issue severe weather warnings well in advance, giving people time to prepare for potential impacts of the storm”

Paul Gundersen, Chief Meteorologist at the Met Office

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