This mornings warm front that mysteriously disappeared from the 06 UTC UKMO analysis chart has miraculously returned as an upper occlusion in their 12 UTC analysis. To be fair they had to find reason for the persistent rain and cloud that’s now across eastern Scotland, and which their NWP models had failed to deal with correctly. It’s funny how important the analysis is, and just how much reliance is put in NWP, sometimes in the face of all observational evidence, and how that permeates down into the weather forecasts we see on TV. Personally I am still of the opinion that it’s the remnants of the warm front they had been closely following and which they forgot to add to their 06 UTC analysis, and if anything it should have been drawn as a frontolysing(?) warm front in both their 06 and 12 UTC charts. Below is another story that I was going to publish just before I checked out the latest analysis and which is strongly connected to this ‘upper occlusion’.
Today’s NWP models are absolutely fantastic but they can’t replace observations, weather radar, satellites and observations from the ground. The BBC weathercasters seem to have missed the amount of cloud and the persistence of rain falling from the remains of an old warm front or as a result of a partially disrupting upper trough, and put all their faith in the model – who can blame them that’s what they do. The rain hasn’t ‘fizzled’ as it was forecast to do at lunchtime, and I think that ‘barely a cloud in the sky’ over England and Wales maybe just a tad over the top.