Don’t panic Captain Mainwaring – it’s not a hurricane!

Courtesy of NOAA

I realise part of the weather presenters job is to alleviate the fears of the general public who presumably all think that Lorenzo will reach this sceptred isle as a full blown category 5 hurricane, but the health warning does get a bit waring after a while. Take a look at these three examples that I collected this morning.

Courtesy of the BBC
Courtesy of UKMO
Courtesy of UKMO

Meanwhile the BBC and Meteogroup are skirting around the whole issue of Lorenzo’s track and are just posting a graphic in their forecast this morning – it’s probably because they don’t have a clue on which model to use!

Courtesy of the BBC

The NHC have changed their minds slightly since yesterday, still seem convinced that it will track northeast rather than east or north. They also seem to have run out of tiles north of latitude 60° north to complete their wind speed probability graphics!

Courtesy of NHC

Talk of ex-hurricanes for some reason always reminds me of the Monty Python sketch about a dead ex-parrot. More seriously, the various NWP models do seem to be in a complete conundrum about what to do with Lorenzo, and is a reminder at least to me, about how little we know about the end of a tropical cyclones when they morph into extratropical cyclones.

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