Ben Rich seems to be convinced that the weather is going to turn dramatically colder by next weekend. I presume he is looking at the ECMWF midnight run that does have a cold northerly plunge around about then, unlike the GFS mode which seems to keep things more unsettle and cyclonic. If there is one thing I’ve learnt in the last eight years of blogging about NWP forecasts is that their accuracy starts to nosedive after T+96, and by T+120 they are more science fiction than they are science fact. I wouldn’t mind if we had had any warm weather in northern Scotland so far this spring, but we haven’t, it may have reached the mid twenty any number of times further south but so far we have had only one day with a maximum higher than 20°C.
Not that its that warm a day across the country today with negative anomalies across large parts of the country. Ben obviously thought that was not very eye catching though so he went with the cold plunge story instead.