ECMWF backtrack on Monday’s rain across Scotland


The ECMWF over the last three successive model runs has slowed the progress of the cold front into northwest Scotland. Monday did look for most of the country but in the latest run it looks dry at least for most of the day across the mainland although the Outer Hebrides still look wet.

6 thoughts on “ECMWF backtrack on Monday’s rain across Scotland”

      1. What’s not to buy? There’s a long-wave upper trough to the west of the UK that is forcing the precipitation on that particular front. Owing to how the models have been changing their handling of the shape and strength of the jet between runs means that the shape of the trough, the degree of disruption, the timing of the disruption and the resulting changes to the evolution of the disruption are all having a knock-on effect on how much precipitation will be produced, when it will be produced and the shape of the resulting precipitation area. Simples. Things like this happen every day, with varying effects on the weather.

        1. Lets keep it very simples and forget about the dynamics behind what the feature was or how it came to be.
          That post was about the absence of a warm front on the UKMO 06 UTC analysis for yesterday to explain the rain across Scotland. They either
          (a) forgot to add it – which I think is most probable and something they do from time to time.
          (b) ignored it – which is unlike them with out previously marking it frontolysis.

          The fact that the front reappeared six hours later as an upper occlusion supports (a), and also helps them explain the slight rain that continued to fall from it during the afternoon.
          You have only got to inspect this mornings o6 UTC analysis to see to what lengths they go to keep fronts and troughs going, even if some are little more than just some upper or medium level cloud. And that’s why I know that it was (a). It’s only in recent years (~last 30 years) that the analysis and forecast charts they produce have started to look like this. Personally I think they should simplify all their analyses charts and not use them as some kind of scratch pad to mark up interesting bits of cloud or precipitation on. It must amuse or confuse in equal measure their counterparts in other Met services around the world.

          1. Hmmm – I’m now amused and confused, as I could’ve sworn this post was about the slowing progress of the cold front into NW parts, and the fact that the changing forecast of activity/speed was due to the model differences in jet shape and its subsequent effect on the weather. Ho hum.

          2. No, it wasn’t about the slowed progress of the warm front, but it’s abrupt disappearance in the 06 UTC analysis (and it’s subsequent reappearance 12 hours later as an upper occlusion).

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