El Niño unlikely till later in year
According to NOAA and the NCEP the chances of the SST conditions in the central Pacific remaining neutral this spring are 65%, dropping to 55% during the summer. That means that El Niño event is not expected imminently. I’ve never heard any of an accurate prediction of when an El Niño or La Niña would commence and last, but you would have thought that there were any number of models trying to wrestle with the complexity that poses. In what looks like a year in which global temperatures will climb closer to the levels in 2016, the added impetus of what an El Niño event might just make this the warmest year on record.