“Elsewhere, most places will see little or no snow”

The showers on the radar that I mentioned in the North Sea that I mentioned yesterday evening did eventually make it to Edinburgh, in fact they penetrated as far as Prestwick on the west coast. The Met Office are loathed to admit defeat and update or adjust any of the warnings they have issued, especially when the advice is coming from an insignificant blog like xmetman, who described their yellow warning for snow and ice yesterday as one of the poorest he had ever seen. Initially it looks like they were going to brazen this one out, but obviously three hours of moderate snow from the AWS at Gogarbank eventually changed their minds, and at 0158 UTC the night shift reluctantly extended the warning to cover the rest of southern Scotland. The problem the Met Office have is with this new breed of forecaster is that they rely much too heavily on NWP model output, and with winters getting ever milder these days, have little experience of knife-edge snow events like this, of course a good dose of common sense would help. Issuing a warning that didn’t start till 18 UTC wasn’t a terribly good idea, especially when inland temperatures were already -6°C in the Highlands, and adding a sentence that read “Elsewhere, most places will see little or no snow” was just asking for trouble.

Estimated accumulations from weather radar
I would use the 18-06 SYNOP totals but they are few on the ground and unreliable in cold weather

What do you think?

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