Epsilon definitely one to watch

GFS 00 UTC 19 October 2020

The next tropical cyclone has not even been named yet but the latest run of the GFS model thinks that the low 700 miles to the SE of the Bermuda’s will become Tropical Storm Epsilon in the next day or so. The interesting thing about Epsilon is that although it’s not forecast to make landfall it could spawn a very intense extratropical low in mid Atlantic by early next week. When I say intense, as low as 915 hPa according to the GFS and they don’t get a lot lower than that in October. Having said that, this forecast is for eight days in the future so the chart may end up looking a lot different depending on just how Epsilon interacts as it engages with the North Atlantic. Yesterdays 12 UTC run of the ECMWF hires model takes the low a little more slowly on a more southerly track, and only starts to reinvigorate what’s left of the remnants of Epsilon till later next Tuesday and into Wednesday as it tracks across western Scotland, and by 12 UTC on Wednesday the low has deepened to 955 hPa and scooted off into the North Sea. Epsilon is definitely one to watch in the coming week.

ECMWF Hires 12 UTC 17 October 2020
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