I keep having to check to see if the ECMWF have changed their minds about the anticyclonic easterly spell that it forecasts to begin by next weekend, but the good news is that they haven’t, as you can see from the T+216 frame for next Sunday. Typically the kind of weather this brings in February is dry, cold, and very sunny particularly in the sheltered west and very cold by night. Just how cold the air will be dictates how unstable the North Sea and the intensity of any snow showers that it produces. Snow showers will affect all eastern coastal regions of England and Scotland but will lose their intensity as they track inland.
The cold weather has never really lost it’s grip in the north of Scotland since after Christmas, and if this forecast blocking high is just as tenacious, it might well mean that we are in for a prolonged spell of severe cold weather during February. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Met Office don’t make some kind of pronouncement about it early in this coming week.
I notice that their long range weather forecast has at last come into line with the models have been hinting at. Of course I could fall flat on my face with all this and by next weekend temperatures could be in double figures – but at least for now it’s game on!
UK long range weather forecast
Wednesday 3 Feb -Friday 12 Feb
Wintry precipitation is likely to persist over northern areas on Wednesday, showers in the far southwest, elsewhere rather cloudy with plenty of dry weather. Mild at first in the south; though high pressure building up over the north of the UK during this period is likely to bring easterly winds, cold temperatures, and coastal snow showers. A pattern of wintry showers persisting across the far north, elsewhere seeing mostly fine weather, widespread frosts, fog, and icy patches. Eastern parts seeing the most hazardous conditions, with further snow showers likely. The south and west will see the most of any organised rain and snow, but frontal systems are generally not expected to progress across the country.
Friday 12 Feb -Friday 26 Feb
High pressure to the north looks set to remain for at least the beginning of this period, before slowly declining, although confidence at this range is low. Mid February will continue to see cold, dry, and wintry weather, but towards the end of the month more unsettled weather may encroach from the Atlantic. These may bring rain and snow at times to the west and southwest. There is a continued risk of significant snowfall events on the boundary between colder and milder airmasses, with snow possible in many areas.
Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Fri 29 Jan 2021