Poo poo this blog if you like, but the 365 day moving average in my DIY global temperature series continue to slide into May. It’s not that global temperatures in May aren’t still well above the LTA they are, it’s just that because they are slightly lower than they were this time last year they have slid back since the end of February. Because my global temperature series is built using 6 hourly data from reanalysis data my series is almost in real time with much more precision than a monthly series provides, but as I’ve said before, my results may differ because I don’t weight the temperature over oceans like other global temperature models do. The two graphs above are running 12 month averages, and although the magnitude of the anomaly is less in my DIY series, the shape of the curve is very similar to that from the HadCRUT series. The graph below shows the daily 365 day on day differences since the end of November 2019.
Of course it can’t be expected that global temperatures will continually increase month by month with ever increasing values there has to be a background field of natural variability to global temperatures that no one can measure. A break in global warming happened in 2010-11 and again in 2017, so this might be just another natural breaking in the warming cycle, which also curiously coincides with the Covid-19 pandemic – you couldn’t make it up could you.