Greek ‘medicane’ update

ICON model 17 Sep 00 UTC
Courtesy of

It certainly looks like a stormy start to the weekend over mainland Greece. I’m not sure just how accurate the German ICON model is, but it deepens the medicane just off Sicily at 06 UTC this morning down to 970 hPa, taking it rather lazely eastward towards the coast of western Greece by late Friday. The GFS model in contrast almost seems to park the wouldbe medicane off western Greece for 48 hours, but doesn’t deepen the feature so much (989 hPa). In both models the gradient around the cyclone looks extremely tight, and if this forecast comes off coastal region on the west coast of Greece are in for a bit of a battering with gales and some torrential rain. Having said all that the intensity of this ‘medicane’ does look rather bizarre, probably because it’s so out of the ordinary to see such an intense feature like this in the Mediterranean.

GFS model 17 Sep 00 UTC
Courtesy of

I certainly can’t see what observations they have this morning to confirm a low as deep as 982 or 990 hPa at T+06 and that’s another reason why I’m a little dubious about the intensity of these forecasts.

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