Hats off to the ECMWF

Courtesy wxchart.com

I was only shooting my mouth off the other day saying that the limit for NWP models might be no more than T+120, and as if to prove how wrong I can be along comes the forecast for 00 UTC tonight (4 May 2021) from the ECMWF model to prove just good they can be these days, and why this model is regarded by many as the best in the world at the moment. It’s far from perfect at T+240, the low was too shallow and the rain across the Alps was spurious, but the broad signal of a cyclonic type for the fourth of May was spot on. I have asked the UKMO to free up their model data so we can do a direct comparison between the two models but I am still awaiting a reply.

2 thoughts on “Hats off to the ECMWF”

  1. I think if you lived in southern France or northern Italy you would be thinking it was a terrible forecast. It is a good one for the UK, I must admit.

    1. It was the best I could do to appear contrite – but you’re right there’s still a lot of work to be done on the 10 day forecasts.

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