The Morayshire warning
I must say that the amounts quoted in yesterday’s yellow warning of heavy rain from 1600 BST till 0800 BST this morning for Morayshire were justified. Having said that a heavy rain warning for totals of just 10 to 20 mm over a sixteen hour period seems to me more like a warning of moderate rather than heavy rain. The start time of the warning was also much too early, moderate rain didn’t start till 2100 BST at Kinloss and not 1600 BST.
The Eastern Scotland warning
However the Met Office did get caught napping with the heavy rainfall as it transferred across to eastern Scotland overnight and which is still ongoing. You would have thought after yesterday’s missed warning and flooding of the rail line north of Inverness that this might have jogged their memory of the flooding and rail crash near Stonehaven in August, but not so.
It wasn’t till 0401 BST that they issued a yellow warning for heavy rain this time across eastern Scotland. This was very late for an event that had already started, and apart from giving no advanced warning to anyone makes you question the accuracy of their mesoscale model (which I think is run every hour these days). I suppose you could argue that any warning, even if it comes at the end of the night and as late as this, is better than no warning at all.
The totals around Aberdeenshire have dwarfed those in Morayshire, with extreme accumulations (till o710 UTC) of over 70 mm just north of Aberdeen, this must be causing major flooding issues in the immediate area as most of this rain has fallen in the last three hours.
If my estimates are correct the general 15 mm with a few spots seeing 30 to 40 mm mentioned in the warning have underestimated the severity of the rainfall around Aberdeen. I have not checked Twitter yet, but as daylight comes I’m sure people will be out there snapping flooded roads and houses.