How is Monday’s gale shaping up?
If anything low Fenja, which at the moment hasn’t even formed yet, looks to be a little slower arriving, at least in the latest run of the German ICON model. It’s certainly going to be deep, much lower than 950 hPa with an intense circulation wrapped around it. This has got to be storm Brendan, but I have been wrong before, and so far Met Eireann have kept quiet about issuing any warnings for Monday. I can’t quite agree with the speed that the Met Office have occluded low Fenja in the following forecast charts, especially as the low is still deepening, and that looks like a very active cold front coming into western areas to me. The secondary low thats across the southwest on Tuesday lunchtime, and which I thought had potential to develop further, now looks like a runner and is not expected to deepen much further by the models as it runs E’NE.
The Met Office may have got caught out with unexpected gusts in their last few strong wind warnings across northeast Scotland ( including today), but they have already updated their warning to cover that eventuality on Monday. The mad fools have also included the northern Isles in this one, don’t they realise that 80 mph is looked upon as a good day to get the washing done in Shetland? It also looks like they are in no mood to name this storm, as it’s still not ticked ‘very likely’ in the impact matrix, so they’ll leave it to the Irish to do it for them. Have you noticed how the word “gale” is rarely if ever included in the text of any wind warning, perhaps its seen as just far too technical for the general public to understand.