I sometimes wonder if the Met Office know what they’re doing

Yes, I’m at it again! The Met office have just updated (0934 UTC on Sunday) their yellow warning for heavy rain which they issued yesterday. They shrunk the area because the rain is now just affecting northern parts of England which it clearly is in the radar image below. My criticism of this is why draw an area across the southern fell of the Lake District when the heavy rain area clearly extends across the whole of the Lake District and into southwest Scotland (see radar image from 1005 UTC below)? The only thing I can think is that the senior forecaster in Exeter is just looking at rainfall accumulations from the mesoscale NWP output, and is completely ignoring what the latest weather radar imagery is telling him. They did a very similar thing on the 22nd of September when they failed to extend the area of a yellow warning for heavy rain across into Dumfries, and I won’t even mention the flooding along the Moray coast. In my opinion they urgently need to update how they initiate and display warnings on their website!

Last Word

The rain quickly died out during the afternoon across the north of England as the low pulled away into the North Sea, so apart from the area not extending far enough north the updated warning forecast totals for 09 to 18 UTC were correct if you believe these rainfall radar estimates of mine.

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