Keeping it simple
It’s a good job that we have professional meteorologists down in Exeter to keep track of all the fronts across the country at the moment isn’t it? Personally my approach might be overly simple even quite naive, but I prefer it’s simplicity to the official analysis.
By the looks of previous German and the American charts I seem to be on a loser with my simple analysis, nevermind, it does go to show that continuity is key. At least they are both considerably less complicated affairs though.
Update 1345 UTC
A crafty forecaster on the day shift at Exeter has now cunningly converted one of the two occlusions into a sort of bent back occlusion cum cold front.
He had no choice really, especially when the southeast at 12 UTC still had dewpoints of 16°C quite widely behind the first cold front, which is now quite impossible to find somewhere over the low countries. Take a look at the thermogram from Heathrow for instance, supposedly behind their first cold front when quite clearly it’s still in warm air.
The real cold front with dew points behind it of 10°C was way back as I had originally drawn it and only went through Exeter early this afternoon.
Further north the warm sector is even more well defined, this is Mona on Anglesey.
Here’s my contorted version of the 12 UTC chart which at least fits with the winds and the dew points.