I can’t understand why the UKMO were so reluctant to issue a yellow warning for strong winds for later this afternoon for western Scotland. The NWP models have all been very consistent about how low Gudrun would develop and the strength of the winds around it. Met Eireann managed to issue their yellow warnings on Wednesday, the UKMO begrudgingly issued a yellow warning for Northern Ireland yesterday. During this last winter it was common practice for the UKMO to issue warnings for strong winds up to four days ahead, so why the delay with Gudrun?
The UKMO should have issued a warning for western Scotland at the same time they issued one for Northern Ireland, treating it as being part of the same event which it is. Please take a close look at these warnings and notice that gusts in Scotland need to be 60 to 75 mph before a yellow warning is issued, whereas in the rest of the UK the threshold looks to be lower at 50 to 60 mph.
The UKMO like me, can’t seem to decide if its correct to call them southwesterly or south-westerly winds, or for that matter if it’s the northwest or north-west of Scotland.