Missed warnings for heavy rain

Earlier this week there was heavy rain across a large part of the northwest Highlands with totals on higher ground of 100 to 150 mm in thirty hours, no warning was issued. Is it just me that questions how warnings for heavy rain are issued? I don’t think so, here’s a snippet from the Gloucester News bemoaning the fact that flooding had occurred in Gloucestershire and no warning had been issued there either. It’s interesting to read the reply from Met Office spokeswoman, and how she mentions the “warnings impact matrix” which is one of the main reasons I believe some people find warnings confusing. The spokeswoman obviously has very slopey shoulders and she should go far in the organisation, because she immediately transfers any liability or blame for the flooding onto the Environment Agency.

Courtesy of Gloucester News

It’s about time the Met Office extricate itself from the job of having to assess the ‘impacts’ of any severe weather event. It’s a game we play to give ourselves something to do. We are now living in the second decade of the twenty first century and it’s about time we let the machines do the work, they’ll not only do it cheaper and quicker, they’ll also do it better. The days of playing at forecasters are long gone, we ought to accept that fact and acknowledge we are being driven by NWP from supercomputers, which in away were the first artificial intelligence.

xmetman

As for today and the warning of heavy rain in Scotland, accumulations for the period (04-18 UTC) never made the 40 to 60 mm predicted in southern Scotland, and the area of heavy rain across higher ground of western Scotland extended much further north into Sutherland.

Courtesy of UKMO
Estimated rainfall accumulations from weather radar.

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