It is only noticeable when you have had a spell of more or less blue skies that you see how poorly NWP models cope with cloud. The last couple of days it’s been the extent and penetration of the low stratus and the haar along the east coast, today it’s the frontal thick medium and upper cloud across Western areas. With model runs being run every six hours or even more frequently you wouldn’t think that nowcast range forecasts like this would get so out of step with reality as they seem to have done this morning.
It was interesting to hear Nick Miller in his forecast this morning, who wisely like Carol Kirkwood, never specified where he thought the warmest place in the UK would be, unlike Darren Bett did yesterday. Perhaps after it occurring in Scotland for three of the last four days they didn’t want to chance their arm and get it wrong again.