Models still not in touch with reality

Courtesy wxcharts.com

The models at 09 UTC this morning seemed to be divorced from the reality of the situation when you compare what they are forecasting with the actual SYNOP observations. I reckon the snow level in the southeast of the Grampians may be as high as 400 M amsl at the moment lowering to 250 M further to the northwest. Maybe it’s just a resolution thing, but I don’t think that’s the problem. According to most of them it should be snowing close to Aviemore, and yet it’s still raining there with a temperature of 2.8°C. The only place that it’s still managing to snow is at Loch Glascarnoch but that’s at 269 M amsl. Hopefully the cold air will start to filter in during the day and we might see more in the way of snow falling again by evening time.

What do you think?

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