Much lower than forecast temperatures across the southeast of England today

Courtesy of UKMO
Courtesy of BBC

Both Meteogroup and the UKMO ballsed up their forecast temperatures for 15 UTC today across the southeast of England. I would like to say what maximum temperature they had specifically gone for, but both organisations prefer to give the temperature at 1600 BST (15 UTC), which is a kind of pseudo maximum in an attempt to coincide with day time maximum heating. The NWP models do generate maximum temperatures (as they also do for minimum temperatures) but for some strange reason they choose not to make use of it.

The UKMO were particularly poor in going for a temperature of 37°C for London at 15 UTC, Meteogroup plumped for a slightly more realistic temperature of 35°C when in reality the actual temperature at Heathrow at 15 UTC was 32.8°C and the maximum only 33.4°C. I am sure that they would probably argue that the maximum of 34.5°C at Herstmonceux (today’s surprising hot spot) completely justified their forecast.

The forecast of 32°C for Norwich by the Met Office was almost 10°C too warm, the 26°C from the Meteogroup forecast was a lot closer to the mark but was still over 3°C too high.

The reason why the temperatures were lower than expected was probably because the NWP hadn’t factored in the strength and the cooling effect of the east north easterly flow of the North Sea, plus the core of the hot air lies straddled SW-NE much further east across central France rather than it does the UK.

Temperatures at 1600 BST 8 August 2020

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