Much too late – almost an afterthought

Courtesy of UKMO

The Met Office have finally got their arse’s into gear and issued a much belated yellow warning for heavy rain for northern Scotland. The area they have chosen in my opinion should have been much larger and the warning should have come into force immediately rather than at 4pm this afternoon – 4pm really? This was already quite obvious at 3am this morning when I saw the ICON NWP output

So why did it take so long them for them to react to NWP guidance?

The simple answer in my opinion was that all their attention was being focused on storm Barbara as it started to chug up the English channel. Scotland where’s that now? This yellow warning could and should have been issued yesterday, and the one they did end up issuing is more or less a token gesture to prove that they care, and I bet the only reason they issued it was after being prodded into doing it by a bunch of SEPA flood warnings. The Met Office should be proactive in this regard and not reactive.

Little consistency in any of their warnings

These are estimated accumulations since yesterday. I have grey filtered all totals less than 25 mm out in this chart. As you can see this still leaves large areas that have seen accumulations as great as those that prompted the Met Office to issue a yellow warning on Monday for western Scotland. Admittedly the maximum totals of 70-80 mm have been over the mountains in the last 24 hours but rainfall over mountains ends in river. They seem to demonstrate little consistency in any of the warnings for rain that they issue. I think the warning system they do use [NSWWS] is in dire need of an overhaul, and with improvements in artificial intelligence in recent years perhaps semi-automating it by directly hooking up any new system to their best mesoscale model output by using GIS mapping by postcode.

Weather radar estimates of rainfall accumulation
Scroll to Top