Beginning with this year’s hurricane season outlooks, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) will use 1991-2020 as the new 30-year period of record. The updated averages for the Atlantic hurricane season have increased with 14 named storms and 7 hurricanes. The average for major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5) remains unchanged at 3. The previous Atlantic storm averages, based on the period from 1981 to 2010, were 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. NOAA is updating the set of statistics used to determine when hurricane seasons are above, near, or below average relative to the climate record. This update process occurs once every decade.
“This update allows our meteorologists to make forecasts for the hurricane season with the most relevant climate statistics taken into consideration, our work illustrates the value of NOAA’s investments in next-generation technologies to capture the data that underpins our outlooks and other forecast products. These products are essential to providing the public and local emergency managers with advance information to prepare for storms, and achieving NOAA’s mission of protecting life and property.”Michael Farrar, director of NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Courtesy of NOAA NHC
Here is a look at the last thirty years tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic and the new 1991-2020 averages which surprisingly fit with the ones that I calculated.