I was very surprised to see that the BBC forecast from Meteogroup never mentioned the potential of gales from storm Atiyah affecting parts of Scotland other than the southwest. Not a peep out of Susan Powell in the 1128 AM forecast on the BBC News channel this morning about possible gales over northern and northwest Scotland. Meteogroup are obviously towing the party line on this one, as Exeter has so far stuck by the original yellow warning of strong winds they issued at 1023 UTC on Friday and refused to update it. But rather provocatively the BBC do slap a gale box across Northern Ireland, even though the yellow warning doesn’t extend across the province.
Can you can get a gale without gusts of 50 to 60 mph? A gale is defined as mean speed of 34 knots or 39 mph so it would have to be a pretty well behaved mean speed over coast and inland for this to happen you would have thought. As usual it’s not possible to tell which particular NWP model the BBC and Meteogroup are using, but it must be either the ECMWF or UKMO model and certainly not the GFS. Let’s see what the 12 UTC run of the models reveal.