November’s unusual circulation

The atmospheric circulation for the first three weeks of November 2019 has been quite unusual. I’ve been rabitting on since May about how persistent the anomalously higher than average pressure over Greenland and north of Iceland, and effectively pushing the Icelandic low south further into mid Atlantic, and tilting the path of lows than run cross this area into more of a WNW-ESE direction towards southwest Ireland. It’s still going on this month. The reanalysis MSLP data so far this month confirms that it’s happening big time this month, with positive anomalies (+12 hPa) to the NNE of Iceland and negative anomalies (-12 hPa) in the English Channel. Higher than average pressure over the Azores (+8 hPa) is tightening the squeeze in the flow, with a belt of lower than average pressure from the southwset of Greenland across the Atlantic into central Europe. I know this cliche comes out most every winter but – if this were January we would be up to our knees in snow in the north I shouldn’t wonder. I wonder if the circulation of the coming winter will continue in the same vein?

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