Odds still in favor of a storm Alex

The leading NWP Models now seem to be coming to some kind of general consensus about the track of Friday’s low, although they do differ about its intensity. The ECMWF for example takes the developing low northeastward from the Bay of Biscay (987 hPa) across northwest France towards the Isle of Wight (970 hPa T+84), before it does a pirouette and spirals back into France (T+96). The main emphasis for this coming weekends early and very cyclonic interlude seems likely to be across southern areas, with the weekend looking quite wild and autumnal for a time, rather cold with strong to gale force east or northeasterly winds and some heavy rain. The odds still seem to be in favor of a storm Alex rather than a storm Aiden on the strength of the ECMWF forecast.

Courtesy of UKMO
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