“[our] four-day forecast today is more accurate than a one-day forecast in 1980”

That quote was taken directly from a piece about Comparing forecast accuracy on the Met Office web site. I wonder if that statement will still ring true by Friday of this week, after the remains of hurricane Lorenzo either pass us by or pass us over? Certainly the worlds NWP models can’t decide one way or the other at the moment. Yesterday the ECMWF were taking Lorenzo eastward into the English Channel, today there forecast takes Lorenzo northeastward to clip the NW of Scotland by the looks of it. The GFS model sticks to its northward track for Lorenzo but even further west of the UK. The Met Office who don’t publish any of their NWP beyond T+120 have waded in with a solution that takes a rapidly filling Lorenzo eastward across southern England, this is similar to yesterdays ECMWF and indeed similar to what the GFS were doing two days ago.

Courtesy of UKMO
GFS (Courtesy of wxcharts.com)
Thursday 00 UTC and Friday 00 UTC (courtesy of ECMWF)

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