The rise in the 12 month moving average in global temperatures has been checked during March in my DIY series after rising continually since August 2018. My DIY global temperature series has been wrong before, and it may well be wrong about this, but as far as I can see much of March 2020 was cooler than it was during March 2019 when it was unusually warm, hence the drop in the moving average. I maybe at fault because in my DIY series calculations I don’t apply a higher weighting to grid points over the ocean than those overland, and this might go some way to explain the drop during March.
Because I construct my DIY global temperature series from gridded daily data, and because I have already downloaded that up to the 28th, it looks very likely that March 2020 won’t be the warmest on record, in fact it may struggle to be the fourth warmest March in my short series that started in 1948. I realise that it’s quite a daring forecast, and I will more than likely end up with egg on my face, but what the hell.
I wait in fear and trepidation for the release of the official global temperature estimates from the likes of GIS, CRU, NASA, UAH, JMA and Berkeley later next month, none of them have quite the same ring as the DIY series seems to have though.