So much for that much anticipated meridional spell

I must have put the kiss of death on it when I wrote about how this huge high pressure (with a central pressure of 1054 hPa by this Sunday) was looking like it would stick around for at least the next ten days, only to find that the ECMWF has done a complete about face on that particular scenario and now has vigorous low developing and running towards western Scotland by a week on Monday. NWP models flipping as dramatically as this usually mean they don’t have much of a clue about what happens next, and confidence is low about what follows the next week or so of anticyclonic northwesterlies. The GFS is sticking with the meridional spell in their 06 UTC run so watch this space.

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