Something doesn’t quite add up

Courtesy of UKMO

Something doesn’t quite add up here. The UKMO are being quite upbeat about the prospects for the rest of July in their long range forecast, but the midnight run of the ECMWF hi-res model in contrast looks quite cyclonic in nature with a series of vigorous lows crossing northwestern parts on the 8th and 10th. The ECMWF model is not usually far out, and unfortunately the NWP run only extends out to T+240, but although high pressure is never far away from the south I only see short settled spells of a couple of days if the ECMWF forecast is to be believed even here. Who knows, maybe they’re right, and this is how the second half of July will pan out, time will tell.

Courtesy of wxcharts.com
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