State of the UK Climate

Courtesy of UKMO

The Met Office have announced the release of their sixth report on the State of the UK Climate. The latest 22.2 mb PDF of the report was published on Friday. The post to announce it in their blog looks like it was a bit of a rush job to me, possibly hurried out to coincide with the mini-heatwave and high temperatures of 37°C on Friday across parts of the country – who says it’s only politicians who know when to release some news? I have made a few scribbled comments in the margins of the screenshot of the article (below), although I’ve still to read their report, but if it’s as catchy as the title they dreamed up for their blog I may well not bother. Climate change influencing climate? What else is a change in climate going to influence other than climate itself? Don’t misunderstand me I love reports full of climatological graphs, tables and charts, it’s all the politics that it all comes wrapped up in that I don’t like, I think I know by now what a bar or a line chart is telling me without the all the AGW speil that always goes along with it. What they should have used as title is how climate change is influencing the day to day weather across the UK, that may have made people sit up and think a bit more.

My own personal “State of the UK climate” report

The following three graphs for temperature, rainfall and sunshine for the last twenty years are from the same UK gridded climate data series referred to in the article by Dr Mark McCarthy. As always statistics can be used to prove just about anything if you’re so minded, and that’s why I’ve chosen to look at just the last twenty years to illustrate that point, If you had looked at the thirty years or more the linear trends would be telling you a whole different story about what’s going on with our climate as anyone interested in climatology would know very well.

To me it looks like temperatures across the UK have more or less flatlined in the last twenty years across the UK, with the current twelve month moving average still well below those of late 2006.

With regard to precipitation, yes 2019 was rather a wet year all in all, but like the curate’s egg only in part. It might surprise you to find that the linear trend if anything over the last twenty years does show a small fall in precipitation across the UK. The 12 month moving average does show various peaks and troughs during that time, and at the moment we are close to a peak, but don’t forget the near drought conditions that followed that wet spell in the spring of 2020, but of course those dry months were also attributed to AGW too.

The UK has indeed got a little sunnier in the last twenty years but I can’t see why that’s such a bad thing?
I love snowy and frosty days, but I wouldn’t think that seeing a little less of each is necessarily such a bad thing either. Yes we have had seen some flash flooding events, but they are nothing new, and certainly exacerbated by our love of building new homes on floodplains. I still think the climate of this country is one of the best in the world and we are very lucky to live here, even if nowit may be a little bit wetter, warmer and sunnier than it was in the past.

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