At last the Met Office has seen sense and changed its mind about the extent of its it’s yellow warning for strong wind! No, It’s not added parts of Scotland or Northern Ireland as I’ve been suggesting for the last couple of days – it’s shrunk the area! If they had removed parts of the south coast I might have agreed, because they may well be sheltered from the strongest of the west or northwesterly winds – barring extreme gusts at the Needles of course. They have adjusted the validity time to make it later and slily increased the gusts from 60 to 70 mph to 65 to 75 mph around the coasts, that’s as much as they dare without upgrading the warning to amber, and they wouldn’t have liked to do that because it might have been seen to justify Met Eireann’s amber warning.
It will be interesting to see just who has the correct solution for midnight tonight. ICON looks more believable because it’s smoother and less extreme than the GFS model, but who knows. At this range of just 24 hours you would have thought there would have been some consensus between them. The UKMO are still resolutely ignoring the possibility of gusts of 50 to 60 mph or 65 to 75 mph on coasts anywhere other than the southwest of England or Wales.
The BBC and Meteogroup have been plastering gale labels on their charts on TV with scant regard to the official warning from the Met Office in any of their recent broadcasts. Meteogroup will no doubt receive the same XML file that describes the yellow warning area but they choose not to use it – I wonder why? I also wonder if they’ll update the labels they used in their 9.58 AM broadcast to reflect the increased gusts in the latest warning.
Sophie Yeomans is presenting the Met Office video on YouTube this morning, and it’s quite obvious that her video was taped yesterday evening, not only is she dressed the same, but the yellow warning area hasn’t been updated! I wonder if the 757 people who viewed it so far, especially any living in Llandudno, realise this.
The whole idea of a yellow warning for strong winds starting at 18 UTC this evening is a complete nonsense anyway. Have a look at the latest table (10 UTC) of highest gusts from low level stations across IONA, and you’ll see that there already eight UK stations registering gusts greater than 50 mph.
It’s all a bit sad really because the Met Office in recent years has been gradually sidelined from everyday operational meteorology and are living in their own private world of issuing yellow warnings hither and thither that no one ever listens to. There are distinct parallels between them and this blog!