Subtle difference in ECMWF forecast for next week

Today’s run for next Friday – courtesy of ECMWF

There are subtle differences in how the latest model from the ECMWF for the UK next week handles developments by next Friday. The latest run has the centre of the dominant low closer to southwest Ireland, with no sign of any vigorous low developing west of Portugal. This has the effect of keep fresh to strong flow from the southeast in southern parts but more easterly further north. Somewhere in this flow there will be an occluding frontal system trying to push milder air northward. The continent is still very mild with little signs of any colder air apart from in northern Sweden and Norway so we won’t be rescued with winds from the quarter. It just shows why you should never trust a model even if it’s the ECMWF at 7 days out.

Yesterday’s run for next Friday – courtesy of ECMWF

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